Long-range weather forecasting
Submitted by davewillo on Mon, 2021-10-25 10:56
Hi all
Does anyone know a reasonably reliable long-range weather forecasting site? I'm not talking about knowing what the conditions will be like on a certain day months in advance just being able to predict trends etc. I'm trying to work out when to take time off in the new year but ideally don't want it to be blowing it's arse off every day!
Cheers
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resurgence
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Date Joined: 23/04/14
Check the BOM website
Go to the BOM website Climate data section www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml
You can select your location and it shows monthly long term statistics like daily average windspeed and direction at 9am and 3pm, rainfall, temp etc.
davewillo
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Date Joined: 08/09/16
Thanks Resurgence that's
Thanks Resurgence that's really helpful. Should have had a look on their site before posting!
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carnarvonite
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Depends
Lot depends on where you are aiming to travel to. For the north , they are predicting an above average cyclone season starting in December
davewillo
Posts: 2410
Date Joined: 08/09/16
Just locally Carnarvonite. I
Just locally Carnarvonite. I know that Dec/Jan are usually as windy as hell but weren't this year and was trying to get a handle on whether it's likely to be a La Nina or El Nino etc.
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resurgence
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Date Joined: 23/04/14
La Nina and El Nino
There's another section in the BOM that talks about the indicators that lead to El Nino and La Nina conditions and. Just search their site for it.
To save you some reading the indicators are showing a greater than 70% chance of another La Nina over this coming summer, which should mean a stronger and warmer Leeuwin Current and good offshore fishing for pelagics in the southern half of WA. Of course it also means a greater chance of more cyclones.
davewillo
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Date Joined: 08/09/16
Thanks mate. What does La
Thanks mate. What does La Nina usually mean in terms of wind conditions? Probably weaker sou'westers because of cooler overall temps?
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resurgence
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Not sure
I suspect the local wind conditions are driven more by daily local weather patterns than long term climate cycles. Would be interesting to know. The main climate aspect they tend to measure with respect to El Nino La Nina is rainfall across different parts of the country.
davewillo
Posts: 2410
Date Joined: 08/09/16
Yeah that's all I can find
Yeah that's all I can find hence why I asked. Do you know what we had last summer as the winds were much better in December and January than normal. I know because I had a shoulder op and couldn't use my bloody boat on many glassed-off days!
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resurgence
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Date Joined: 23/04/14
La Nina
Last summer was a mild La Nina event.
carnarvonite
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Date Joined: 24/07/07
Bunbury
Living in Bunbury now, moved down in January after 20 odd years up around Carnarvon / Shark Bay area.
The wind up north starts from mid August and run till mid March, usually from Lancelin right through to the west coast at Exmouth. SE winds 15-20 knots turning SW 20 - 25+ knots mid morning, easing off after dark.
Any window where the wind drops off you make the most of it and head out because its not going to last
Silver Fox
Posts: 1113
Date Joined: 19/06/14
Sure is
On the West coast any month with an R in it is guaranteed to be blowing it's tits off. Up here in the Torres Straights it's every damn month apart from three of em....... Thank fuck we're heading into the monsoon, just need to work out how to keep the rain off me during those months!.
My wife understands why I clean my rods n reels in the shower....
davewillo
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Date Joined: 08/09/16
Not so much in March and
Not so much in March and April Chris. Definitely the norm Dec - Feb!
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sea-kem
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Oh boo hoo Mr who gets to go
Oh boo hoo Mr who gets to go fishing whenever he wants
Love the West!
davewillo
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Date Joined: 08/09/16
I assume you're having a
I assume you're having a crack at Chris there Andy?!
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Silver Fox
Posts: 1113
Date Joined: 19/06/14
Ha ha Andy.
Got back from West Oz last Tuesday, I've managed to get out four times so far and tomorrow's looking good. Tamara has got a four day weekend this weekend and she's expecting to get out on the water four of those days!.
Yolo Andy.
My wife understands why I clean my rods n reels in the shower....
sea-kem
Posts: 15005
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Nahhh good onya mate, just
Nahhh good onya mate, just jealous. Enjoy!!
Love the West!